Eurozone downgrade: Is collapse imminent? (Zon euro turun taraf: Apakah ambang keruntuhan)?

Pemimpin Eropah bergegas untuk membendung kejatuhan selepas S&P menurunkan 9 daripada 17 ahli zon euro. Tetapi manakala ramai di seluruh Eropah menjanjikan pembaharuan lanjut, pemecahan zon euro perjanjian yang dilakukan?

Bercakap dengan pemberita dan penganalisis selepas potongan, Standard & Poor meramalkan kemelesetan ekonomi zon euro, mengatakan bahawa KDNK menguncup sebanyak 1.5 % peratus pada tahun 2012.

Perancis, ekonomi ke-2 terbesar zon euro, telah diturunkan daripada penarafan kredit AAA untuk AA + dan boleh menghadapi luka lagi melainkan jika ia berjaya membendung tekanan inflasi ke atas hutang dan defisit bajet. Sebagai tindak balas, Perdana Menteri Perancis Francois Fillon berkata pada hari Sabtu bahawa negaranya akan meneruskan dengan langkah pengurangan kos dalam reaksi potong S&P.

Selain dari Perancis, Austria, Malta, Slovakia dan Slovenia juga telah diturunkan 1 takuk, manakala Cyprus, Itali, Sepanyol dan Portugal mengalami penurunan 2 takuk. Austria, yang kehilangan penarafan AAA, dilihat penurunan taraf sebagai panggilan memanggil untuk membendung hutang dan mendapatkan bagi rumah kewangan. Walau bagaimanapun, negara-negara Eropah yang lain kuat mengkritik Jumaat untuk penurunan gred (downgrades), dengan alasan langkah itu boleh menjejaskan keupayaan negara sudah embattled untuk meminjam wang, mengurangkan hutang, dan mengelakkan krisis yang semakin.

Tetapi manakala Canselor Jerman Angela Merkel berharap penurunan taraf yang akan merangsang penandatangan "padat kewangan" 1 antara negara anggota yang boleh membantu menyelamatkan mata wang tunggal, Laughland John, pengarah kajian di Institut Demokrasi dan Kerjasama, kepada RT bahawa penurunan taraf Jumaat akan turun sebagai awal akhir untuk euro. "Saya fikir apabila euro akhirnya runtuh seperti yang akan berlaku pasti, mungkin dalam tahun hadapan, kita akan lihat pada hari ini, pengumuman ini, penurunan taraf Perancis, seperti yang telah salah satu momen tegas, kerana ia benar-benar adalah 1 tanda bahawa pasaran kehilangan keyakinan dalam zon euro dan euro-projek secara keseluruhannya, dan di negara-negara utama di Eropah, "katanya.

Laughland lagi berhujah bahawa walaupun pemerintahan janji hutang, euro itu sendiri adalah mutlak untuk menyalahkan krisis ekonomi yang mendalam. "Selain dari percanggahan mewarisi euro itu sendiri, isu hutang ini adalah sesuatu yang euro telah gagal untuk mengawal, ia sebenarnya disebabkan oleh euro. Sebab mengapa kita mempunyai masalah hutang dalam zon euro bahawa negara-negara, khususnya di selatan Eropah, yang telah dijalankan hutang yang sangat besar telah mampu untuk berbuat demikian tanpa rasa akibat dari segi kadar pertukaran. Dalam keadaan biasa, jika mereka mempunyai mata wang negara, mata wang mereka akan hilang nilai. Ia adalah kerana mereka mempunyai mata wang yang dikongsi bersama bahawa mereka mempunyai tanggapan bahawa mereka boleh mempunyai jenis makan tengah hari percuma untuk sekian lama. Dan itulah apa yang dapat kami ke dalam keadaan yang kami ini."

Cc1WC’sChannel REVIEW Disaster 2012: People demonstrate with placards in front of the headquarters of Standard & Poor's on January 14, 2012 in Paris (Orang menunjukkan dengan pelekat di hadapan ibu pejabat Standard & Poor pada 14 Januari, 2012 di Paris)

European leaders are rushing to contain the fallout after S&P downgraded nine of the seventeen eurozone members. But while many across Europe promise further reforms, is a eurozone breakup a done deal?

Speaking with reporters and analysts after the cuts, Standard & Poor's predicted a eurozone recession, saying that GDP could contract by 1.5 per cent in 2012.

France, the eurozone’s second largest economy, was downgraded from its AAA credit rating to AA+ and could face further cuts unless it manages to curb inflationary pressure on its debt and budget deficit. In response, the French Prime Minister Francois Fillon said on Saturday that his country would push ahead with cost-cutting measures in reaction to the S&P cut.

Apart from France, Austria, Malta, Slovakia and Slovenia were also downgraded one notch, while Cyprus, Italy, Spain and Portugal suffered double-notch declines. Austria, which lost its AAA rating, viewed the downgrade as a wake-up call to curb its debt and get its financial house in order. However, other European nations strongly criticized Friday’s deluge of downgrades, arguing the move could hamper already embattled countries’ ability to borrow money, reduce debts, and avoid a deepening of the crisis.

But while German Chancellor Angela Merkel hoped the downgrade would spur the signing of a “financial compact” between member states that could help save the single currency, John Laughland, director of studies at the Institute for Democracy and Cooperation, told RT that Friday’s downgrade would go down as the beginning of the end for the euro. “I think when the euro finally collapses as it will do surely, probably within the next year, we will see this day, this announcement, the downgrading of France, as having been one of the decisive moments, because it really is a sign that the markets are losing confidence in the eurozone and the euro-project as a whole, and in the core countries in Europe,” he said. 

Laughland further argues that despite promises reign in debt, the euro itself is ultimately to blame for the deepening economic crisis. “Apart from the inherit contradictions of the euro itself, this debt issue is not something that the euro has failed to control, it has actually been caused by the euro. The reason why we have a debt problem in the eurozone is that the countries, particularly in southern Europe, who have run up enormous debts, have been able to do so without feeling the consequences in terms of exchange rates. In a normal situation, if they had had national currencies, their currencies would have lost value. It is precisely because they have a shared currency that they have the impression that they could have a sort of free lunch for so long. And that’s what’s got us into the situation that we’re in.”