EUROPE
News ‘Keyakinan Jerman, Perniagaan turun lebih daripada yang dijangkakan’ . . .
FRANKFURT, Jerman (AP) -
perniagaan optimis Jerman jatuh lebih daripada yang dijangkakan pada bulan
Ogos, menurut kaji selidik Ifo yang diterbitkan Isnin, satu lagi tanda bahawa
ekonomi terbesar di Eropah menghadapi masalah daripada krisis hutang zon euro.
Indeks jatuh kepada 102,3 mata
pada bulan Ogos, turun dari 103,2 disemak semula pada bulan Julai. Penganalisis
pasaran telah dijangka penurunan kecil kepada 102.6 mata. Ekonomi telah memberi
amaran bahawa krisis hutang di zon euro 17-negara akhirnya boleh mengejar dengan
Jerman. Ekonomi negara mempunyai lebih daripada beberapa tahun kebelakangan ini
yang dilakukan lebih baik daripada kesatuan mata wang secara keseluruhannya,
yang sedang bergelut dengan krisis berbanding hutang kerajaan yang terlalu
banyak dan kemelesetan di beberapa negara. Jerman berkembang 0.3% peratus pada
suku ke-2 dan pengangguran kekal rendah.
Tetapi krisis hutang mempunyai
impak yang semakin meningkat ke atas Jerman sebagai pesanan jatuh dari rakan
dagangan zon euro dan perniagaan dan pengguna bertahan bermula pada
perbelanjaan dan pelaburan di luar takut akan masa depan.
Indeks Ifo berdasarkan kaji
selidik sebanyak 7,000 perniagaan Jerman yang ditanya mengenai pandangan mereka
terhadap keadaan perniagaan semasa dan jangkaan mereka untuk tempoh 6 bulan
akan datang. Walaupun pemandangan bagaimana perkara-perkara yang kini hanya
sedikit lebih pembukaan lagu, jangkaan untuk masa depan gelap ketara merentasi
beberapa sektor, termasuk pembuatan dan peruncitan.
"Perusahaan semakin
pesimis tentang pembangunan perniagaan mereka," Ifo presiden Sinn
Hans-Werner berkata dalam satu kenyataan. "Ekonomi Jerman dijangka terus
lemah." Masalah di tempat lain sudah mula untuk menjadikan diri mereka
dirasai. Itali dan Sepanyol, No 3 dan No 4 zon ekonomi euro, adalah dalam
kemelesetan ketika mereka cuba untuk mengurangkan defisit bajet dan perjuangan
untuk membiayai semula hutang mereka dalam pasaran bon. Greece, Portugal dan
Ireland telah diselamatkan oleh pinjaman dari negara-negara zon euro yang lain.
Setakat ini, eksport kereta dan
jentera perindustrian kepada ekonomi yang semakin meningkat di Asia dan Amerika
Syarikat telah membantu Jerman berkembang, manakala kadar pengangguran yang
rendah telah disokong perbelanjaan pengguna di rumah. Tetapi kelebihan mereka
mungkin tidak cukup untuk lebih lama menentang bawah arus daripada krisis zon
euro.
"Eksport dan penggunaan
domestik telah dilindungi ekonomi Jerman terhadap virus krisis euro sehingga
kini," ING penganalisis Carsten Brzeski menulis dalam nota kepada pelabur.
"Imuniti ini, bagaimanapun, telah runtuh dengan cepat sejak beberapa bulan
kebelakangan ini. Akibatnya, ia kelihatan seolah-olah akan ekonomi Jerman, pada
terbaik, mengirik air di bulan-bulan akan datang." Beliau berkata mata
bukti untuk penguncupan ekonomi pada suku ke-3 tahun ini. "Walau
bagaimanapun, mari kita jelas, memandangkan asas-asas bunyi ekonomi,
penguncupan mana-mana hampir tidak perlu berasa kemelesetan di Jerman,"
katanya.
Andreas Rees, Ketua Ekonomi di
UniCredit Penyelidikan di Munich Jerman, berkata "headwinds
psikologi" telah memainkan peranan. Pasaran kerja Jerman masih kukuh, dan
beberapa pekerja telah memenangi menimbulkan besar, paling ketara peratus 4,3
meningkatkan dimenangi oleh pekerja terbesar perindustrian kesatuan, IG Metall.
Yang perlu meningkatkan permintaan pengguna di kedai-kedai, namun peruncit
lebih pesimis dalam kaji selidik itu.
"Kebimbangan mengenai
krisis zon euro telah jelas outweighing faktor-faktor positif," berkata Rees.
Zon Eropah menjadi lebih teruk kemelesetan kilang . . .
TINJAUAN 1WC'sChannel 2012: (EuroNews) Pembuatan di zon euro menguncup lagi pada bulan Julai, bagi bulan (for the 11th straight month). Kaji selidik terbaru beribu-ribu kilang menunjukkan kemerosotan pembuatan yang teruk di Itali, Sepanyol dan Greece, tetapi juga dalam 2 ekonomi terbesar di rantau ini - Perancis dan Jerman. Indeks pengurus pembelian (PMI) yang dihasilkan daripada kaji selidik menunjukkan ia adalah cerita yang sama di Britain di mana PMI menjunam rendah lebih daripada 3 tahun.
Di China dan India pesanan eksport lemah dan pengeluaran kilang terhenti. PMI rasmi China susut kepada 50.1, yang merupakan rendah 8 bulan. Data zon euro menggariskan skala krisis ekonomi di rantau ini dan meletakkan lebih banyak tekanan kepada Bank Pusat Eropah untuk menyediakan langkah-langkah rangsangan dan menghentikan krisis hutang yang semakin meningkat yang mengancam euro. ECB Presiden Mario Draghi minggu lepas berjanji untuk melakukan apa sahaja yang ia mengambil masa untuk memelihara euro - dalam lingkungan mandat Bank. Tetapi ekonomi tidak mengharapkan tindakan dasar berani dari mesyuarat dasar ECB bulan ini.
* Pengecualian Ireland* Sepanyol, yang merosot lebih jauh ke dalam kemelesetan pada suku ke-2, menyaksikan bulan ke-15 berturut-turut penguncupan, manakala Itali mencatatkan tahun dalam wilayah negatif. PMI untuk Greece, di mana krisis hutang bermula, telah di bawah 50 sejak September 2009. Malah di Turki berkembang pesat sekali, aktiviti perkilangan menguncup buat kali pertama dalam tempoh 4 bulan. Adalah tempat yang hanya terang Ireland. Ia adalah negara zon euro sahaja untuk menunjukkan tanda-tanda muncul dari kemelesetan, dengan PMI melebihi 50 (yang merupakan titik pembahagian antara pengembangan dan penguncupan) bagi bulan lurus ke-5.
Eurozone factory downturn worsens . . .
1WC’sChannel REVIEW 2012: (EUROnews) Manufacturing in the eurozone contracted again in July, for the 11th straight month. The latest survey of thousands of factories showed the manufacturing slump worsened in Italy, Spain and Greece, but also in the region's two biggest economies - France and Germany. The purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) produced from the surveys showed it was the same story in Britain where the PMI plummeted to a more than three-year low.
In China and India export orders were weak and factory output stalled. China's official PMI slipped to 50.1, which was an eight-month low. The eurozone data underline the scale of the region's economic crisis and put more pressure on the European Central Bank to provide stimulus measures and stop a spiralling debt crisis that is threatening the euro. ECB President Mario Draghi last week pledged to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro - within the Bank's mandate. But economists do not expect bold policy action from this month's ECB policy meeting.
*Ireland the exception* Spain, which slid deeper into recession in the second quarter, saw the 15th straight month of contraction, while Italy chalked up a year in negative territory. The PMI for Greece, where the debt crisis began, has been below 50 since September 2009. Even in once-booming Turkey, manufacturing activity contracted for the first time in four months. The only bright spot was Ireland. It was the only euro zone country to show signs of emerging from the downturn, with its PMI above 50 (which is the division point between expansion and contraction) for a fifth straight month.
EUROPE
News ‘German business confidence down more than expected’ . . .
FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) -
German business optimism fell more than expected in August, according to the
Ifo survey published Monday, another sign that Europe's largest economy faces
trouble from the eurozone debt crisis.
The index fell to 102.3 points
in August, down from a revised 103.2 in July. Market analysts had expected a
smaller dip to 102.6 points. Economists have been warning that the debt crisis
in the 17-country eurozone could eventually catch up with Germany. The country's
economy has over the past few years done better than the currency union as a
whole, which is struggling with a crisis over too much government debt and
recessions in several countries. Germany grew 0.3 percent in the second quarter
and unemployment remains low.
But the debt crisis is having
an increasing impact on Germany as orders fall from its eurozone trading
partners and businesses and consumers hold off on spending and investment out
of fear of the future.
The Ifo index is based on a
survey of 7,000 German businesses which are asked about their views of current
business conditions and their expectations for the next six months. While views
of how things are now were only slightly more downbeat, expectations for the
future darkened significantly across several sectors, including manufacturing
and retailing.
"Enterprises are
increasingly pessimistic about their business development," Ifo president
Hans-Werner Sinn said in a statement. "The Germany economy is weakening
further." Troubles elsewhere are starting to make themselves felt. Italy
and Spain, the No. 3 and No. 4 eurozone economies, are in recessions as they
try to reduce budget deficits and struggle to refinance their debts in bond
markets. Greece, Portugal and Ireland have been bailed out by loans from other
eurozone countries.
So far, exports of cars and
industrial machinery to growing economies in Asia and the United States have
helped Germany grow, while low unemployment has buoyed consumer spending at
home. But those advantages may not be enough for much longer against the
undertow from the eurozone crisis.
"Exports and domestic
consumption have shielded the German economy against the euro crisis virus up
to now," ING analyst Carsten Brzeski wrote in a note to investors.
"This immunity, however, has been crumbling away quickly over recent
months. As a consequence, it looks as if the German economy will, at best, be
treading water in the coming months." He said the evidence points to a
contraction of the economy in the third quarter of the year. "However,
let's be clear, given the sound fundamentals of the economy, any contraction
should hardly feel recessionary in Germany," he said.
Andreas Rees, chief German
economist at UniCredit Research in Munich, said "psychological
headwinds" were playing a role. Germany's job market is still strong, and
some workers have won big raises, most notably a 4.3 percent raise won by the
biggest industrial workers union, IG Metall. That should boost consumer demand
in stores, yet retailers were more pessimistic in the survey.
"Fears about the eurozone
crisis were obviously outweighing these positive factors," Rees said.
Germany = 99 seats, Italy = 72 seats, France = 72 seats, Spain = 50 seats. Where is Britain in this? Rothschilds and Rockefellers have power dont they? I always knew Euro Crisis was a lie . . . all the money is in hands of the Elite!!!
Krisis Euro - Apa yang terjadi dan Mengapa?? 2012 Update . . .
Jerman = 99 kerusi, Itali = 72 kerusi, Perancis = 72 kerusi, Sepanyol = 50 kerusi. Di manakah Britain dalam hal ini? Rothschilds dan Rockefellers mempunyai kuasa dont mereka? Saya sentiasa tahu Krisis Euro adalah satu pembohongan . . . semua wang di tangan Elite!
Euro Crisis - What is Happening and Why ??? 2012 Updatem . . .
Lagard Worries Eurozone Crisis would Affect Asia
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsTezHqyFmQ
European Crisis Explained http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKpE0HqJtow&feature=related
Euro Crisis - What is Happening and Why ??? 2012 Update http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBbvBdcwLOI&feature=related
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